CityMobil2 will carry out a socio-economy study to forecast the future transport markets and the role cyber-mobility may play in the urban transport sector.
- Can we envision a mindset and behavioural shift from car ownership to extended use of shared fleets of driverless vehicles in the urban environment of tomorrow?
- Is the economic benefit from products and services that are generated by fleets of automated vehicles and their take up in the cities of tomorrow a sufficient substitute to replace for the possible reduced demand in the European car market?
- Would the technological edge in Europe take over the rest of the world in terms of manufacturing the transport system of the future, thereby help increase Europe’s exports and boosting its economy?
These are the types of forward-looking questions which CityMobil2 will attempt to address.
A wider take-up of cyber-mobility across the European cities could change the prospects for the car industry and other industries. This has to be considered in the context of other structural changes that will affect the automotive industry in the coming decades. The aim of the socio-economic study will be therefore to develop a forward-looking exercise to year 2050 whereby alternative scenarios of diffusion of cyber-mobility (niche-like vs large market penetration) are elaborated and their impact on the global prospects for the automotive industry evaluated. This analysis will cover possibly radical shifts in the automotive industry business model. New business models may change the boundaries between different market segments in the transport sector, recombining the role of car producers with that of other producers of transport technologies and services, including ICT, collective transport services and infrastructure. The socio-economic study will be conducted through three main tasks:
- Building a blueprint of alternative cyber-mobility take-up scenarios, based on the experience accumulated in the CityMobil2 city case studies and engaging partners, cities and other public transport stakeholders in a SWOT analysis. Visions and implementation scenario alternatives will be defined in relation to technological and normative roadmaps concerning the deployment of the automated technologies, and the likely evolution of the normative context enabling automated transport in the urban environment.
- Stakeholders’ assessment of the take-up scenarios. The aim of this task will be to assess and fine tune the alternative scenarios with the contribution of a community of industry stakeholders, engaged in an online DELPHI survey, and in a one-day workshop to discuss the scenarios and elaborate their positions/recommendations for the future development of cyber-mobility in the urban environment.
- Conclusions and policy recommendations for a wider cyber-mobility policy take-up
Read our article
on the first results of the study.